Julio Number 33 Public Advisory

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Julio #33
Julio #33

Tropical Cyclone Julio Number 33 Public Advisory

WTPA34 PHFO 120232
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST MON AUG 11 2014

…JULIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.6N 156.2W
ABOUT 465 MI…745 KM N OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 450 MI…720 KM NNE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 318 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 156.2 WEST. JULIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.24 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

 



WTPA44 PHFO 120232
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST MON AUG 11 2014

JULIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
SEMICIRCLE OF JULIO WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM
SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES HAS T NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.0 FROM
SAB…3.5 FROM JTWC AND 4.0 FROM CPHC. THUS WE WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JTWC AND CPHC AND LOWER THE INTENSITY OF JULIO TO
A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

JULIO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS JULIO
GAINS LATITUDE…A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AND
THEN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 4 AS JULIO BEGINS TO COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLY WINDS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING DAYS 4 AND 5.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 20Z ONLY CAPTURED A PORTION OF THE WEST SIDE OF
JULIO BUT IT DID HELP IN DETERMINING THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII MAY
BE A BIT SMALLER IN THAT SECTOR OF THE STORM THAN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS WE HAVE DECREASED THE RADIUS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD
INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JULIO. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE SST VALUES ALONG ITS TRACK
REMAIN THE SAME OR WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. MORE RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 3 AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND
SST VALUES ALONG ITS PROJECTED TRACK LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY. ONCE JULIO
GAINS ENOUGH LATITUDE AROUND DAY 4 AND 5…THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 27.6N 156.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 28.3N 157.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 29.2N 157.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 30.3N 158.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 31.4N 158.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 33.3N 156.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 35.0N 153.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 36.9N 150.9W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

 



 

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.