WTPA33 PHFO 280237
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
500 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015

…IGNACIO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.3N 141.9W
ABOUT 980 MI…1575 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1190 MI…1915 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 141.9 WEST. IGNACIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES…130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB…29.00 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA



WTPA43 PHFO 280238
TCDCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
500 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015

ALTHOUGH ITS OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ON THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON…DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER OF IGNACIO CONTINUES TO PUSH TOPS ABOVE THE -80C
LEVEL. THE EYE HAS REMAINED CLOUD-FILLED THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 2246 UTC GPM PASS SHOWED THE STRONGEST
CORE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT 77 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC…AND 90 KT FROM PHFO. THE 2330
UTC CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 80 KT. WITH THE
AVAILABLE ESTIMATES UNCHANGED…THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY PACKAGE IS ONCE AGAIN HELD AT 80 KT. A 1932 UTC ASCAT PASS
WAS USED TO HELP REFINE THE WIND RADII.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 290/11 KT. IGNACIO IS MOVING
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION STARTING TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE AIDS
FOR THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST GFS HAS
SHIFTED ITS FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD A BIT…POSSIBLY DUE TO A
WEAKER PROJECTED CYCLONE IN THE MODEL. THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH AS WELL WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS
THE TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE
GFEX THROUGH 72 HOURS…THEN CLOSE TO THE GFS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

DESPITE BEING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28C AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR…IGNACIO HAS NOT BEEN ABLE STRENGTHEN
TODAY. ACCORDING TO SHIPS GUIDANCE…A WINDOW FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING SHOULD EXIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS…THOUGH WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY LOWERED TO 95 KT DUE
TO TODAY/S TRENDS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 48
HOURS…MAINLY DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND DSHP BEYOND 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 13.3N 141.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.0N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 14.8N 145.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.6N 146.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 16.4N 147.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 18.0N 150.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 20.0N 153.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 22.0N 156.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA