Tropical Cyclone Ana Advisory 7

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Tropical Cyclone Ana Advisory 7 Oct 14, 2014 11:00PM HST

WTPA35 PHFO 150840
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 14 2014

…TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FAR EAST SOUTHEAST
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.1N 146.1W
ABOUT 710 MI…1140 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 920 MI…1480 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

Tropical Cyclone Ana advisory #7
Tropical Cyclone Ana advisory #7

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 146.1 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY…WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…AND ANA MAY BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB…29.36 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
WWWW
WTPA45 PHFO 150914
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 14 2014

ANA REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM THE 0507Z SSMIS AND A 0643Z AMSU PLATFORMS AVAILABLE
ON THE FNMOC/NRL WEB SITES INDICATE THE LLCC MAY BE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 10 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR ANA ARE 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC…WHILE
THE SAB ESTIMATE IS 4.0/65 KT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND INTENSE LIGHTNING OBSERVED NEAR THE INNER CORE OF
ANA…THE INTENSITY IS BEING NUDGED UP TO 60 KT TOWARD THE SAB
ESTIMATE AS A COMPROMISE.

STRONG TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST…OR
275 DEGREES…AT 8 KT. ANA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED ALONG THIS COURSE
BY A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A MINOR SHIFT TO
THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT 24 AND 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY…WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER ANA TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE FACT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF NEAR 50 KT BETWEEN ANA AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…THE
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY SHOW THAT ANA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
INSTEAD…ANA WILL BE IN MINIMAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. BY THIS WEEKEND…A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF ANA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE IMPACT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE ON ANA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE…WITH ANA
POTENTIALLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION…THE CIRA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES ALONG
THE PROJECTED TRACK SHOW THE VALUE WILL RAMP UP DURING THE 48 TO 72
HOUR PERIOD…SO THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF OCEAN WARMTH AVAILABLE
TO THE SYSTEM AS ITS WINDS ARE INCREASING. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. ALSO…THERE MAY BE SOME INTERRUPTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IF IT INTERACTS WITH ANY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF ANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 14.1N 146.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 14.3N 147.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 14.6N 148.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 150.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 15.6N 152.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 155.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 19.9N 157.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 21.6N 158.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

WWWW

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.