Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil Advisory 7

Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 11 PM HST

(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 8)

Hurricane Gil Advisory 8 is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (70 kts), moving west at 12 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the storm center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the storm center.

 

000

WTPZ32 KNHC 010840

TCPEP2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

200 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013

…TINY GIL MAINTAINING 80-MPH WINDS…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…14.3N 122.8W

ABOUT 1030 MI…1660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST. GIL IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED

EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING

BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES…20 KM…FROM

THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60

MILES…95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

000

Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil #8 – Page 2

WTPZ42 KNHC 010843

TCDEP2

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

200 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013

IT APPEARS THAT GIL IS NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE

CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS BECOME QUITE COMPACT WITH NO INDICATION OF AN

EYE…AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE MORE OR LESS DISSIPATED.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AT T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB

AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70

KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10 KT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A

STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE US/MEXICAN BORDER WESTSOUTHWESTWARD

INTO THE PACIFIC. GIL WILL BE REACHING A BREAK IN THE

RIDGE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION

BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5. IT SEEMS THAT GIL HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FREE

ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ…WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM

GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE

HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH MAINLY BEYOND 48 HOURS…AND

THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.

EVEN THOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED…GIL

STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE. DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS…AND THE

MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER SSTS.

DESPITE THIS ENVIRONMENT…ALL OF THE GUIDANCE LIMITS ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT

TIME…THE BIGGEST INHIBITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY

STABLE AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND A LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OR A LITTLE

HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT THEN FOLLOWS A

WEAKENING RATE SIMILAR TO SHIPS…LGEM…AND THE INTENSITY

CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.3N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 01/1800Z 14.6N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

24H 02/0600Z 14.9N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

48H 03/0600Z 15.3N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 04/0600Z 15.3N 133.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 05/0600Z 15.1N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

120H 06/0600Z 15.0N 140.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BERG