Tropical Cyclone Julio Number 15 Public Advisory

WTPZ35 KNHC 071437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014

…JULIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.9N 136.5W
ABOUT 1235 MI…1985 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JULIO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/H…AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS…BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START
LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES…150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



WTPZ45 KNHC 071438
TCDEP5

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014

Despite moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Julio is
continuing to strengthen. The eye has become better defined during
the past few hours, and the cloud top temperatures in the eyewall
have cooled. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt
from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB, and objective estimates from the
UW-CIMSS ADT are near 100 kt. The initial intensity is increased
to 90 kt based on a blend of these data. The cirrus outflow is good
to excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere.

Julio has turned a little to the left and the initial motion is now
280/16. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge
for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to
west-northwestward trajectory. During the first 72 hours, the
track guidance is tightly clustered near the new forecast track with
the notable exception of the GFDL model, which forecasts a track
near the Hawaiian Islands. After 72 hours, the guidance has come
into better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii
will be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should
continue a west-northwesterly to westward motion. This has reduced,
but not eliminated, the spread in the track guidance at 96 and 120
hours. The new track forecast is just south of the previous forecast
through 72 hours, then is adjusted farther south from the previous
track at the later forecast times. The new forecast lies near or
just to the north of the multi-model consensus and the center of the
guidance envelope.

The dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical
wind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone
passes over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C. All of the
intensity guidance forecasts a gradual weakening during that time,
and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The intensity
forecast becomes more uncertain after 72 hours as Julio starts
moving over warmer sea surface temperatures. During this period,
the statistical guidance is forecasting a weaker storm than the
dynamical guidance, and the the large-scale models have some
disagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter. The later part
of the forecast is nudged upward as a compromise between the two
model camps. Overall, the new forecast lies close to the intensity
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.9N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.3N 138.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 23.5N 158.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 24.5N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven