Tropical Cyclone Julio Number 18 Public Advisory

WTPA34 PHFO 080850
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

…HURRICANE JULIO HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AND IS
MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.8N 140.4W
ABOUT 970 MI…1560 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1165 MI…1870 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…962 MB…28.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JULIO.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 140.4 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH…195 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JULIO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES…65 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES…205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB…28.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

WWWW
WTPA44 PHFO 080910
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

HURRICANE JULIO HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. SATELLITE
PRESENTATION SHOWS JULIO REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED…WITH PRONOUNCED
BANDING FEATURES REPLACING THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT ANNULAR
STRUCTURE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 4.5…BY
JTWC…TO 6.0…BY CPHC. THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS 5.7…WHILE SAB SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AT 5.5…OR 102 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
105 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE…SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE BUT STILL REPRESENTING A WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 35N140W THROUGH
38N180W. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH
48 HOURS…AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH THAT
TAU AS IT FOLLOWS TVCN CONSENSUS. HOWEVER…TVCN BEGINS TO DEPART
RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS AT TAU BEYOND 48
HOURS…LIKELY RESPONDING TO A RADICAL RIGHTWARD GFS SWING TO THE
NORTH AT LONG RANGE. AS A RESULT…THE FORECAST TRACK BEGINS TO
PARALLEL ECMWF INSTEAD OF TVCN BEYOND 48 HOURS…ALTHOUGH IT HAS
BEEN ALTERED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK TO MAINTAIN
SMOOTHNESS AND CONSISTENCY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT…WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIO PARALLEL TO AND NORTH OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…INTERESTS THERE SHOULD WATCH DEVELOPMENTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST…EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 120 HOURS…WITH SST BEING THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FACTOR. WHILE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AFTER 24 HOURS AS JULIO APPROACHES AN UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS NEVER MORE THAN 11 TO
13 KT. JULIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MINIMAL HURRICANE AT 72
HOURS…THEN REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 17.8N 140.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.2N 142.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.1N 145.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.1N 148.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.2N 150.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 23.7N 155.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 25.7N 159.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 27.2N 164.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

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