Julio Number 24 Public Advisory

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Julio#24
Julio#24

Tropical Cyclone Julio Number 24 Public Advisory

WTPA34 PHFO 092100
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2014

…HURRICANE JULIO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST FAR
TO EAST NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.9N 148.7W
ABOUT 425 MI…680 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 595 MI…955 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 298 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JULIO THIS WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 148.7 WEST. JULIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/H…AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK…JULIO WILL PASS ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAUI
ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…155 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…BUT JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 165
MILES…270 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB…28.94 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JULIO WILL PRODUCE LARGE SURF
ALONG MOST NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

 

WWWW
WTPA44 PHFO 092058
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2014

A 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN FLYING
THROUGH AND AROUND JULIO FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MISSION CONTINUE TO HELP US WITH DETERMINING
THE LATEST MOTION AND INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IN A NORMALLY DATA
VOID REGION FAR EAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 95 KT EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF
ABOUT 85 KT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF CURRENT INTENSITY FROM
SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM SAB AND 5.0 FROM BOTH
PHFO AND JTWC. BASED ON BOTH AIRCRAFT AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES…WE WILL KEEP JULIO AS AN 85 KT SYSTEM FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.

JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13
KT…ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP JULIO MOVING ALONG TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
EVEN DUE NORTHWEST DURING THE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE
NORTH.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF JULIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS OUTPUT
SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. SST VALUES REMAIN MARGINAL AT AROUND 26C
ALONG ITS TRACK SO THEY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING…KEEPING
JULIO AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS ALONG CLOSELY WITH
MOST MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE LATEST TRACK STILL KEEPS JULIO NORTH
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…ALL INTERESTS ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF JULIO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN CASE TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.9N 148.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 21.9N 150.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 23.2N 152.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.5N 154.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 25.9N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 28.0N 160.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 29.8N 163.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 31.4N 165.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE
WWWW

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.