Tropical Cyclone Ana Advisory 11

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WTPA35 PHFO 160836
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST WED OCT 15 2014

…ANA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD…

ana#11
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.1N 149.3W
ABOUT 545 MI…875 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 755 MI…1210 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 149.3 WEST. ANA IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. ANA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY…
AND MAINTAIN THIS MOTION THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII STARTING LATE FRIDAY.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE THURSDAY.
THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS MAY BE
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING ALONG SOME SHORELINES STARTING ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL…HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII LATE FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

WWWW
WTPA45 PHFO 160851
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST WED OCT 15 2014

ANA IS PRESENTING A DETERIORATED SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS
EVENING…AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR ALSO INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER…BUT A 0402
UTC SSMI/S PASS CONFIRMS WHAT EARLIER PASSES SUGGESTED…THAT THE
CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED NORTHWEST FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 3.0/45 KT TO 3.5/55 KT…AND
GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY DUE WEST AT 265/09 KT…TO THE SOUTH
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE
PROVIDING THIS STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY…BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING FLOW…WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN ANA TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE AIDS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED…
AND ARE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THUS THE UPDATED
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS…AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE
WESTWARD MOTION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK TAKES THE
CENTER OF ANA JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY…THEN NEAR OAHU AND KAUAI OVER THE WEEKEND. FORWARD MOTION
OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS STEERING
CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A LOW TO THE NORTH. THE NOAA
GULFSTREAM IV SAMPLED THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT EARLIER TODAY…AND
IS SLATED TO FLY AGAIN TOMORROW…PROVIDING VALUABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
DATA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. ON ONE HAND…MORE THAN
ADEQUATE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…IN LINE WITH HWRF AND GHM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER…
SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY LOWERING THE EXPECTED PEAK
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS…AND ARE NOT FORECASTING ANA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. THE CURRENT DETERIORATION OF ANA IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY LENDS CREDENCE TO THESE FORECASTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A BLEND OF THE TWO…BUT DELAYS HURRICANE
INTENSITY UNTIL FRIDAY…WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IF ANA
FAILS TO REORGANIZE SOON…SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO BE NUDGED FURTHER DOWNWARD.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF ANA. WITH AN AVERAGE 48
HOUR TRACK ERROR OF APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES…IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
SAY WITH MUCH CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER. EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ANA. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP
IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 14.1N 149.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.5N 150.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 15.3N 152.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.5N 154.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.8N 156.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 20.0N 157.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 21.3N 159.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 23.0N 161.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

WWWW

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.