Tropical Cyclone Ana Advisory 14A

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WTPA35 PHFO 170229
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

…ANA MAKING TURN TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AND NEARING HAWAII…
ana#14a
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.6N 151.9W
ABOUT 410 MI…660 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 610 MI…980 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…AND IN THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AREA FROM NECKER TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. WATCHES
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL AREAS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 151.9 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…
WITH ANA POSSIBLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SHORELINES BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY…AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS.

RAINFALL…HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE

WWWW
WTPA45 PHFO 170251
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST THU OCT 16 2014

A PERSISTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY…AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES CAME IN AT
3.0/45 KT…AND GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE TREND…THE INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT. U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WILL
BE SAMPLING ANA AFTER MIDNIGHT…PROVIDING CRUCIAL DATA.

THE LONG ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST APPEARS TO HAVE
BEGUN. A 2224Z TRMM PASS HELPED TO LOCATE A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER…AND THE HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF GOES
RAPID SCAN HAS HELPED TO DETERMINED THE SHIFT IN FORWARD MOTION…
WHICH IS SET AT 295/10 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF ANA IS NUDGED EASTWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONE HAS HELD
STRONGER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT…AND THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE LEFT DURING EACH FORECAST CYCLE IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY SHIFTING TO
THE LEFT…THOUGH IT STILL REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE DYNAMIC
AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. EVEN WITH THE SHIFT IN THE TRACK…
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IS STILL UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH…
AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS BEING POSTED FOR THAT ISLAND. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV HAS
BEEN SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT…INCLUDING THE RIDGE…AND THE
AIRCRAFT/S EFFORTS HAVE BEEN GREATLY APPRECIATED. A RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANA TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST…WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE TURN HAVING
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS AS TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FELT ON THE
REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. BY DAY 5…ANA IS
FORECAST TO BE ENTERING THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY…AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO LESS THAN 10 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS AND
OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE. IN ADDITION…THE OUTFLOW IN
ALL BUT THE WESTERN QUADRANT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT TODAY.
THAT SAID…ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS ANA AS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…BUT GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT…THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE LATE FRIDAY. THE WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ANA GIVES WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO IMPART VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SHIPS DURING THIS WEAKENING PHASE.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF ANA. WITH AN AVERAGE 48
HOUR TRACK ERROR OF APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES…IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
SAY WITH MUCH CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING DIRECT IMPACTS FROM ANA. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO KEEP
IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 14.6N 151.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 15.4N 153.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 16.6N 155.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 17.9N 157.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 19.0N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 20.4N 159.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 21.6N 162.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 23.0N 164.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

WWWW

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.