Tropical Cyclone Ana Advisory 16A

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WTPA35 PHFO 171758
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
800 AM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

ana#16a

…ANA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.1N 154.6W
ABOUT 250 MI…400 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 420 MI…675 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…AND IN THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AREA…SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM HST…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 154.6 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING…WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS…WITH ANA POSSIBLY BECOMING A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.30 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII BY TONIGHT.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE
ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SHORELINES BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY…AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS.

RAINFALL…HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS AFTERNOON…WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES EXPECTED…WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE

WWWW
WTPA45 PHFO 171501
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 AM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

ANA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF
THE CENTER…WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTH AND EAST
SEMICIRCLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED WHAT APPEARED TO BE A BANDING
TYPE EYE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
MIDNIGHT…BUT THAT FEATURE QUICKLY ERODED…WITH WESTERLY SHEAR
NEAR 10 KT LIKELY PREVENTING ANA FROM ORGANIZING MORE EFFICIENTLY.
DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMED THAT
ANA IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH…WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
OF 72 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT…AND MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS OF 54
KT. A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DATA SUPPORTS INCREASING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE NEXT PENETRATION
OF THE CYCLONE BY THE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON…
WHILE THE NOAA G-IV WILL BE FLYING ANOTHER SYNOPTIC MISSION TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…
295/12 KT. A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND SATURDAY…AS THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF ANA IS NUDGED EASTWARD BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A
NEW RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF ANA…RESULTING IN A SLOWING
IN THE FORWARD MOTION…AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST…JUST AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU FROM THE SOUTH. LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PAST 48 HOURS…SHIFTING WEST
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN…ESPECIALLY AT THESE TIME RANGES. THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY IN THE
SHORT TERM…AND CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. IN THE LONGER RANGE THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WESTWARD…IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE…AND TOWARD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION…WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL OVER THE PAST 48 TO
72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5…ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
DESPITE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ANA TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN THE SHORT
TERM…BUT THE WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED TO CLOSE
ON SATURDAY…AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS IS DUE TO THE PASSING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IMPARTING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE…BUT IS
WEAKER THAN THE ICON CONSENSUS. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST IS DEEMED TO
BE TOO HIGH…AS THE HWF AND GHM MAKE ANA A 100 KT HURRICANE BY DAY
4…DESPITE INCREASING SHEAR. THIS STRENGTHENING TREND OCCURS AS ANA
REACHES THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS…WITH THE VARIANCE IN FORECAST MODELS DUE TO THE DIFFERING
FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LONGER RANGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 15.7N 154.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 155.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 157.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 19.2N 158.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 20.0N 159.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 21.0N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 22.0N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 23.5N 167.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

WWWW

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.