Tropical Cyclone Ana Advisory 17

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WTPA35 PHFO 172041
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

…ANA NOW A HURRICANE AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.4N 155.2W
ABOUT 230 MI…365 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 380 MI…615 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES

 

ana#17

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY…OAHU…
AND KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI…
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 48
HOURS…DEPENDING ON WHICH ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 155.2 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H. A SLIGHT TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ANA WILL PASS ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY…FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES…150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.24 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE
ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SHORELINES BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY…AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS.

RAINFALL…HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA MAY REACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS AFTERNOON…WITH TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES EXPECTED…WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE OTHER ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE



WTPA45 PHFO 172041
TCDCP5

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST FRI OCT 17 2014

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…WHILE
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW CONTINUES IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ALL
THREE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 4.0/65 KT…AND ANA HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A HURRICANE. U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING ANA THIS AFTERNOON…WHILE THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV
CONTINUES TO PROBE THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE…CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE TVCN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
DYNAMIC AND CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS ALSO…BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE RIGHT IN THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
AS A RESULT…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI
COUNTY…OAHU…AND KAUAI COUNTY AND REMAINS POSTED FOR THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII.

THE INITIAL MOTION REFLECTS THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
IS SET AT 300/12 KT. ANA WILL TURN ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK LATER
TODAY AS THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE STEERING THE SYSTEM IS NUDGED EASTWARD
AND WEAKENED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH.
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY…A NEW DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTH OF ANA AND SHOULD PUSH THE SYSTEM BACK ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE TURN HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS AS TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FELT ON THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND…HENCE THE EXPANSION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO MAUI COUNTY…OAHU…AND KAUAI COUNTY. BY
DAYS 4 AND 5…ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LYING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ANA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS MAINTAINING A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CHANGE LITTLE TODAY WHILE OCEAN TEMPERATURE REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. AS A RESULT…ANA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. THE
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION WILL CLOSE ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
BEGIN TO IMPART VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY…BUT ANA WILL REMAIN A DANGEROUS
TROPICAL STORM. SOME REINTENSIFICATION IS CALLED FOR ON DAY 5 AS
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND SHIPS.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE EXACT TRACK THAT ANA
TAKES WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE WEATHER AND OCEAN IMPACTS THAT THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL HAVE TO ENDURE. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
TRY TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS…PARTICULARLY FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.4N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.5N 156.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.8N 157.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 19.8N 158.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 20.3N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 21.2N 162.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 22.5N 165.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 24.0N 167.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.