Tropical Cyclone Ana Advisory 30

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WTPA35 PHFO 192259
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
100 PM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

…ANA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST…2300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.7N 160.6W
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI…290 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES

ana#30

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT…FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT…FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR KAUAI COUNTY…
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THE
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT…THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 100 PM HST…2300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 160.6 WEST. ANA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH…10 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY…FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY…BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES…20 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES…165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER KAUAI COUNTY
TODAY…AND OVER NIHOA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NECKER ISLAND…FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS…AND TERN
ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS AND TERN ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY…AND WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE
SWELLS COULD POTENTIALLY BE DAMAGING ALONG EXPOSED SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINES.

RAINFALL…ANA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES…WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES…OVER KAUAI AND
NIIHAU. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ANA WILL MOVE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATER IN THE DAY OVER OAHU AND MAUI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES…WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF
ANA.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…300 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

WWWW
WTPA45 PHFO 192117
TCDCP5

HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST SUN OCT 19 2014

ANA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT FEELS THE
EFFECTS OF WHAT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DEBILITATING 30 KT WESTERLY
SHEAR. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS VERY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW THROUGH THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE FOR THIS SYSTEM WHILE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A TIMELY 1846Z GPM MICROWAVE PASS
CORROBORATES RADAR DATA SHOWING ANA HAS BEGUN A LONG-ANTICIPATED
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST. INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 270/06 KT WITH TAU
3 MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER. THE LATEST U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PASS SHOWED THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER STACKED…WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT. THIS REDUCES TO 63 KT AT THE
SURFACE. DVORAK-DERIVED INTENSITIES FROM THE THREE SATELLITE CENTERS
WERE 4.0/65 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC…AND 4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO. WE WILL
LEAN TOWARD RECONNAISSANCE…RECOGNIZE THE TILTED CORE AND SLIGHTLY
DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION…AND ASSIGN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/06 KT IS THE FIRST STEP IN A FORECAST
TRACK WHICH DESCRIBES A LONG 5 DAY RECURVING TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF ANA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS…GRADUALLY ALLOWING THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN LATITUDE BUT CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY 72 HOURS…DEEP TROUGHING
WEST OF THE DATELINE IS EXPECTED TO RE-ALIGN THE RIDGE ALONG A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS. ANA IS EXPECTED TO RESPOND TO THIS
RE-ALIGNMENT BY MOVING ALMOST NORTHERLY…A TREND WHICH WOULD
PREVENT ANA FROM REACHING 170W AS AN EASTWARD COMPONENT IS
INTRODUCED BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS…THEN DEVIATES TO THE RIGHT AT
72 HOURS AND BEYOND AS IT FOLLOWS A SIMILARLY ADJUSTED TVCN
CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK LIES BETWEEN TVCN AND ECMWF…WHICH HAS
PERFORMED RATHER WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANA HAS WEAKENED…BUT REMAINS STUBBORN IN THE FACE OF STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR. SHIPS AND LGEM WEAKEN ANA TO A TROPICAL STORM
BETWEEN 12 AND 48 HOURS…BUT HAVE IT REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER
THAT EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS 30N. HWRF/GFDL DEPICTS ANA EXCEEDING
100 KT BY 72 HOURS…LIKELY WAY TOO STRONG FOR THIS RECURVING
SYSTEM. ANA IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH 48
HOURS…FOLLOWING SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHIPS/LGEM…THEN SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN TO 75 KT FROM 48 THROUGH 120 HOURS. IT SEEMS THAT ANA
WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC BASIN FOR QUITE SOME
TIME…AT LEAST A WEEK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 20.7N 160.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.9N 161.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.4N 163.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 22.2N 165.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 23.2N 166.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 25.8N 167.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 28.5N 168.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 31.3N 167.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

WWWW

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.