Tropical Cyclone Ana Advisory #9

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NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST WED OCT 15 2014

…TROPICAL STORM ANA CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE FAR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.3N 147.4W
ABOUT 630 MI…1015 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 840 MI…1355 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

ana#9

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 147.4 WEST. ANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ANA IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY AND
MAINTAIN THIS MOTION THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ANA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES…100 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB…29.36 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY ANA ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE
EASTERN END OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE THURSDAY.
THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS MAY BE
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING ALONG SOME SHORELINES STARTING ON FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

WWWW
WTPA45 PHFO 152055
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST WED OCT 15 2014

ANA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING. MICROWAVE DATA FROM
1435 AND 1744 UTC SHOWED THAT THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION WAS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF SHEAR IMPINGING
ON THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER…THE LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW
AN EXPANDING AND MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
SHEAR IS EASING AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 55 KT FROM
PHFO AND JTWC…AND 65 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES…THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 60 KT.
CONSIDERING THE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION…ANA MAY BE
CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOVEMENT IS 270/8KT WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE PROVIDING THE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS…THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND
PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANA
TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE
BECOME TIGHTLY CLUSTERED…EVEN BEYOND 72 HOURS AND THE CONSENSUS
TRACK HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED. THUS…THE CURRENT TRACK IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR A VERY
SMALL INCREASE IN SPEED. THE TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ANA JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THEN NORTHWEST NEAR KAUAI AND
OAHU. THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE
STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV IS SCHEDULED
TO BEGIN SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND ANA LATER TODAY. THE DATA
FROM THESE FLIGHTS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE SUBSEQUENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

DESPITE THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANA…INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTENSIFICATION OF ANA…THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER PACKAGES. HWRF AND GFDL ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WHILE SHIPS INDICATES ANA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24
TO 36 HOURS. WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SSTS AND OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT…THE FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS TOWARD THE HWRF SOLUTION AND
CALLS FOR ANA TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A PEAK
INTENSITY FORECAST OF 80 KT IS EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS ABOVE THE LATEST
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. SHIPS CALLS FOR INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR TO
START WEAKENING ANA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF ANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 14.3N 147.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 14.6N 148.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 15.1N 150.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 15.9N 152.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.0N 153.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 19.4N 156.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 21.0N 158.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 22.5N 159.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

WWWW

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.