Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Advisory 22

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 172050

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

…DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO VERY NEAR BERMUDA…
…DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
SOON…

gonzo#22
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…31.7N 65.3W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…949 MB…28.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR…
* ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE EYE
OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST…BUT GONZALO IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER
BERMUDA. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY ONCE GONZALO
MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES…280 KM. BERMUDA AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO
63 MPH…102 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 949 MB…28.03 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA VERY
SOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT
THE SURFACE…AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR
THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL…GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS…PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION…PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT43 KNHC 172057

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

Another reconnaissance plane has been in and around the eye of
Gonzalo and found no significant change in the structure of the
hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds were 124 kt, but the highest
SFMR wind was 88 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
estimated to be 100 kt. The minimum central pressure remains around
949 mb. Although there has been a slight decrease in the surface
winds, no significant change in intensity is expected before the eye
crosses Bermuda in a few hours. Due to the large observed
differential between the winds at the surface and aloft, a higher
than normal gust factor has been used in this advisory.

After Gonzalo passes Bermuda, increasing shear and cooler waters
along the track of the hurricane should result in a faster
weakening. Gonzalo is likely to transition into a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or south of Newfoundland.
This is the consensus of most of the global models.

Aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the
north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should accelerate
and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely embedded within
the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of a deepening
trough along the east coast of the United States. There has been no
change in the guidance, and the NHC forecast is similar to the
previous one.

Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely. Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.

Given the proximity of this dangerous hurricane to Bermuda, NHC will
provide hourly position updates until Gonzalo clears Bermuda.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 31.7N 65.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 34.1N 63.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 38.7N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 44.7N 54.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 50.5N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 56.5N 18.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
WWWW

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.