WTPA31 PHFO 240254
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

…KILO REMAINS DISORGANIZED EAST SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.5N 166.1W
ABOUT 715 MI…1150 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 270 MI…440 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* JOHNSTON ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…AS WELL AS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE
MONUMENT…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 166.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13
KM/H. KILO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KILO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JOHNSTON
ISLAND STARTING MONDAY.

SURF…LARGE SURF ALONG REEFS AND SHORELINES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL…HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH KILO MAY REACH JOHNSTON
ISLAND BY TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

HFO-43166
WTPA41 PHFO 240315
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KILO CONTINUES ITS ON AGAIN
OFF AGAIN CYCLE. AFTER A DECENT BURST OF CONVECTION WHICH PEAKED
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER SMALLER BURST JUST BEFORE
NOON…OVERALL CONVECTION HAS STEADILY DECREASED. THE LATEST DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE…HFO AND JTWC AT 2.0 AND SAB AT 2.5. THE INTENSITY OF KILO
WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT FROM
THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON WILL NOT CONDUCT A MISSION
TONIGHT AND HAVE SWITCHED TO A ONCE PER DAY FLIGHTS. THE NEXT FLIGHT
IS SCHEDULED TO SUPPORT THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE TOMORROW.

THERE HAVE BEEN NO MARKED CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SURROUNDING KILO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF HAWAII
IN ADDITION TO ANTICYCLONES AT 700 AND 500 MB OVER HAWAII. THIS
ARRANGEMENT HAS KEPT KILO MOVING EITHER DUE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD
ALLOW KILO TO START ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHICH WE HAVE BEEN
ANTICIPATING FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
SHIFTED MARKEDLY TO THE LEFT OR WEST THIS TIME AROUND AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. ANY EASTWARD
REGRESSION IN THE TRACK FORECAST WAS REMOVED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE RIGHT OR EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

KILO REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES…ABUNDANT
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT…AND UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. KILO HAS
THUS FAR FOUGHT OFF ALL THREE. WITH NO EXPECTED CHANGES…THE 12
HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED TO KEEP KILO AT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN LINE WITH THE GFS. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
STILL EXPECTED…THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED
FROM 24 HOURS AND THEREAFTER….WITH KILO STILL REACHING MINIMUM
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT DAY 3.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND SINCE
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PAST CLOSELY TO THE EAST. INTERESTS
IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT…SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.5N 166.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.0N 167.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.7N 167.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.4N 167.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 168.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.2N 168.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 19.2N 168.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 20.4N 168.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

HFO-44145