WTPA31 PHFO 220245
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

…KILO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT PASSES FAR SOUTH
OF THE BIG ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.4N 154.9W
ABOUT 435 MI…700 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 580 MI…935 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KILO.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 154.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA



WTPA41 PHFO 220245
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THROUGH THE DAY SHOWED THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF
KILO HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. AN EXPOSED…ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION…WHICH INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECTED BY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE 0000 UTC CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ONLY 8 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST SO IT IS SURPRISING THAT
KILO/S DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ARRESTED. TOPS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAVE ALSO WARMED AND DECREASED IN SIZE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CAME IN AT 45 KT FROM PHFO…HELD UP DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS…
30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZATION…KILO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE DETERIORATING CONDITION OF KILO MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST A
CHALLENGE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM…ABOVE 29C…AND
THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FROM RAMMB-CIRA SHOWS INCREASING VALUES TO
THE WEST. IN ADDITION…VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
48 TO 60 HOURS. THE MAIN INTENSITY OBJECTIVE AIDS POINT TOWARD
FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH KILO STILL BECOMING A HURRICANE. HWRF IS
THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH HURRICANE INTENSITY ACHIEVED AT 60 HOURS.
THE FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE BUT STILL SHOWS KILO BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AND THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL INGREDIENTS. THIS
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. ALL OF THIS MAY BE IRRELEVANT IF KILO IS NOT ABLE TO
DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR IT/S CENTER. IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT FAILS TO OCCUR…THEN KILO WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW. WHILE SURPRISING…IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF IN THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE. KILO IS
MOVING AT 285/12 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD TO KEEP KILO ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME…A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP…AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF…BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF STILL SHOW A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN POINTED TOWARD THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND LIES EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS…THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF…BUT A BIT WEST OF HWRF AND GFDL.

A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WC-130J TOOK OFF AT ABOUT 22/0100 UTC AND
WAS ENROUTE TO KILO. THE DATA FROM THIS MISSION SHOULD PROVIDE
CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO IT/S STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. SUBSEQUENT
FLIGHTS WILL TAKE PLACE AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED IN THE ATLANTIC…A WC-130J IS ALSO
SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING
IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.4N 154.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.0N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.0N 160.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 162.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.7N 163.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 18.5N 163.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 20.0N 162.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 21.5N 161.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA