000
ACPN50 PHFO 221750
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU…HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO…LOCATED ABOUT 450
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO…HAWAII…UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP1
AND WMO HEADER WTPA31 PHFO.

2. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU…HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOKE…LOCATED ABOUT 750
MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND…UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP2 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA32 PHFO.

ELSEWHERE…NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

MORRISON

WTPA31 PHFO 222052
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO PASSING SOUTH OF HAWAII…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.2N 159.4W
ABOUT 500 MI…805 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…INCLUDING EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT…SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KILO.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO
WAS LOCATED BY U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 159.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED…AND KILO MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



WTPA41 PHFO 222044
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 30 KT ON THE APPROACH INTO KILO THIS MORNING…WHICH IS THE
BASIS FOR MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT. ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING PERSISTENT VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL CENTER…THE AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE
TO MAKE A SECOND FIX ON THE CENTER. IN ADDITION…A 1745 UTC SSMIS
PASS SUGGESTED ANOTHER CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST…ALONG WITH A RATHER ELONGATED PATTERN OF LOW CLOUDS
AROUND KILO. ALL OF THIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT…FOR THE
MOMENT…KILO REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13. A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII IS CONTINUING TO STEER THE DEPRESSION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS TO THE WEST OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS…PUTTING KILO IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF VERY WEAK
STEERING. THE FORECAST THUS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BY DAY 3. BEYOND DAY 3…A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS KILO STARTS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS…THEN INDICATES A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5…TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

ALTHOUGH KILO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE THUS FAR…THE
ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES KILO OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
28-29C AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AS KILO MOVES TOWARD…AND THEN
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE…BUT STILL WELL BELOW THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND HWRF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 14.2N 159.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.9N 161.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 16.0N 163.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.8N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 17.6N 164.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.9N 164.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 19.4N 163.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 20.0N 163.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD