WTPA31 PHFO 212045
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KILO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

…KILO CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…13.0N 153.3W
ABOUT 480 MI…770 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 650 MI…1045 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KILO.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 153.3 WEST. KILO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS…WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

WTPA41 PHFO 212050
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2015

THE INITIAL VISIBLE SECTOR IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CENTER EAST OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
INDICATES KILO IS STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR
AND IS HAVING DIFFICULTY GETTING FULLY ORGANIZED. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN AT 45 KT FROM PHFO…HELD
HIGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS…30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM
JTWC. THE CIRA/RAMMB MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS
INDICATED 35 KT IN KILO/S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS HELD AT 35
KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATER…ABOVE 29C IN
THE LATEST ANALYSIS…AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSIS FROM
RAMMB-CIRA INDICATES INCREASING VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
EASTERLY SHEAR…JUST UNDER 10 KT IN THE 1800 UTC CIMSS
ESTIMATE…IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY…AND THEN
REMAIN RATHER WEAK THROUGH DAY 3. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE
STORM WILL STRENGTHEN…AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
MODELS AGREE. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

KILO IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING AT 285/14 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO
BUILD WESTWARD…AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE MODELS ALSO PROJECT THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP AT ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN A
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOW A SHARPER TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF IS A NOTABLE
OUTLIER AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE WEAKER AND MOVES IT MUCH FARTHER WEST
BEFORE SLOWING DOWN FAR SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS…THEN NUDGED
WESTWARD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND HWRF. THE FORECAST IS
SLOWER THAN BEFORE AFTER DAY 3 WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE OBJECTIVE
AIDS BUT TAKES A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE WEAKER AND
MORE WESTWARD ECMWF SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE…ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF KILO…BUT THE NOD FOR NOW IS
CONSERVATIVELY BEING GIVEN TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. GIVEN THIS FORECAST TRACK…INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE WC-130J WILL BEGIN FLIGHTS INTO KILO
THIS EVENING…AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE…PROVIDING CRITICAL INSIGHT INTO KILO/S
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. WITH THE G-IV AIRCRAFT TASKED
IN THE ATLANTIC…THE WC-130J IS ALSO SCHEDULED TO DO A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ORDER TO SAMPLE THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF KILO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 13.0N 153.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.7N 155.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 14.5N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.5N 161.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.3N 163.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 18.0N 163.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 21.0N 161.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA