TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
0900 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013

 

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 80.7W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 85NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 80.7W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 39.5N 73.0W…POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.5N 67.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 46.5N 58.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 180SE 90SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 80.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

—-Wind Speed Probabilities—-

000
PWSAT1

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
0900 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS…45 MPH…75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.

- – - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES – - -

VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
DISSIPATED X 3 7 13 16 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 14 26 31 39 34 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 85 68 59 46 46 NA NA
HURRICANE 1 3 4 3 5 NA NA
- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
HUR CAT 1 1 3 4 3 4 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT NA NA

II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

- – - – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – - – -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
LOCATION KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15)

PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)

EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)

HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 38(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)

EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)

BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

PORTLAND ME 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

BOSTON MA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)

HYANNIS MA 34 X 5( 5) 37(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X 7( 7) 46(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

HARTFORD CT 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X 15(15) 16(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

NEWARK NJ 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

TRENTON NJ 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)

DOVER DE 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 38(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

RICHMOND VA 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

NORFOLK NAS 34 8 38(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)

NORFOLK VA 34 10 41(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)

WALLOPS CDA 34 1 38(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)

RALEIGH NC 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 26 28(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 62 5(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)

WILMINGTON NC 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
WILMINGTON NC 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)

CHARLESTON SC 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)

SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

MAYPORT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

—-OUTLOOK—-

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK – ATLANTIC
———————————–

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA…LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE…NEAR 0 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WWWW

——————-

PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM EDT VIERNES 7 DE JUNIO DE 2013

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE…EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO…

EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL ANDREA…LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL SURESTE DE GEORGIA.

UNA PEQUENA AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 750 MILLAS AL
ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES SE HA TORNADO MENOS ORGANIZADA DURANTE
LAS PASADAS HORAS. VIENTOS FUERTES EN LA ALTA ATMOSFERA SE ESPERAN
QUE PREVENGA CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE ESTE DISTURBIO. ESTE SISTEMA
TIENE UNA POSIBILIDAD BAJA…CERCA DE 0 PORCIENTO…DE CONVERTIRSE
EN UN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS SEGUN SE MUEVA
AL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 15 MPH. INFORMACION ADICIONAL A ESTE
SISTEMA PUEDE SER ENCONTRADA EN EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTA MAR EMITIDO
POR EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO NACIONAL.

EN EL RESTO DEL AREA…NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

&&

EL PRONOSTICO DE ALTA MAR ES EMITIDO POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA BAJO EL TITULO AWIPS NFDHSFAT1 Y EL TITULO WMO FZNT01
KWBC.

$$

PRONOSTICADOR BROWN

WWWW

EASTERN PACIFIC
—————

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC…EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WWWW

CENTRAL PACIFIC
—————

ACPN50 PHFO 070555
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC…BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL

WWWW

WESTERN PACIFIC
—————

ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZJUN2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
130.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
NORTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 070121Z
METOP-A 89H IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND NO DISCERNIBLE CENTER. A 070122Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED, WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. A
07/00Z SHIP REPORT, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER, INDICATES WINDS 240/07 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1009 MB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTH OF 20N (AFTER TAU 36) AND INTENSIFIES AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//


FXUS04 KWBC 062200
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
559 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013
FINAL DAY 1…DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 07/0000 UTC THRU JUN 10/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER…PRECIP ACCUM – 24HR
MADE GENERALLY ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF..BASED
AT LEAST IN PART ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY/TREND..WITH THE 18Z MODEL
RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z RUNS AND LATEST NHC TRACK OF
ANDREA CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
DAY 1…
…EASTERN US…
ATLANTIC SEABOARD…
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BASED HEAVILY ON LATEST NHC TRACK
GUIDANCE…WHICH BRINGS TS ANDREA NEWD ACRS NERN FL AND ALONG THE
GA/SC COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…THEN INTO HAMPTON ROADS
AND THE LOWER VA EASTERN SHORE BY THE END OF DAY 1. ANDREA WILL
BECOME DRAWN INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS…WHICH GIVEN THE BAROCLINIC BOOST WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY
QUICK NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF HEAVIER RAINFALL UP ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. HAVE EXPANDED THE DAY ONE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO
INCLUDE THE ATLC SEABOARD UP THROUGH NY AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND…GIVEN THE HEAVIER FRONTOGENETIC-AIDED RAINFALL EXPECTED
TO PRECEDE ANDREA’S CENTER LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRI. AXIS OF
ANOMALOUS PW’S CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE ERN SEABOARD THIS
AFTERNOON… AS VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALL THE WAY UP
INTO COASTAL PTNS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAY ONE. 30 HOUR
AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS BTWN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z SAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM SERN GA/ERN SC INTO SRN NC…WITH
2-3+ INCHES INTO THE DELMARVA AND NJ. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED FARTHER N DURING DAY 2 (BEGINNING AT 00Z SAT).
APPALACHIANS…
THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH…PER EVOLVING “S” SIGNATURE
NOTED ON LATEST IR/WV STLT…WILL COMBINE WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER QUEBEC TO ENHANCE THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE MID ATLC TO THE NORTHEAST WELL
AHEAD OF ANDREA. THIS WILL HELP DRAW IN THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WELL N AND W OF ANDREA’S TRACK…AND AS SUCH WILL LEAD
TO A SECOND MAXIMA OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN FROM
THE WRN CAROLINAS NE THROUGH WRN VA/ERN WV…WRN PA…AND WRN NY.
WPC NOTED AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE IN 24 HOURS
OVER THESE AREAS…WITH THE SETUP CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES GIVEN
THE LOWER FFG OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
…LOWER MS VLY…
THE COMBINATION OF A LINGERING MCV ALONG WITH THE BROADER-SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW FOR MOD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ERN
TX THROUGH LA AND SRN MS. HIGHEST AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS…1 TO 1.5
INCHES…ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA…MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST
(SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SFC FRONTAL BNDRY) WHERE THE BEST INSTBY AND
LLVL INFLOW/MSTR CONVERGENCE EXISTS.
DAYS 2/3…
…EASTERN STATES/ANDREA…
THE 12Z GUIDANCE…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM…CLUSTERS FAIRLY
WELL AT THE SURFACE WITH THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOR ANDREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MODEL THE PMSL FIELDS DID
NOT TRANSLATE OVER TO THEIR QPFS. THE GFS WAS A PARTICULAR
OUTLIER ON DAY 2 AS IT APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS EARLY ON AND THEREFORE DISCOUNTED ITS VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS
SOUTHWEST OF ANDREA OVER EASTERN VA. THE GFS IS ALSO ALONE AND
WAS NOT FOLLOWED WITH THE HEAVY AMOUNTS IT GENERATES FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON DAY 2.
THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO STRENGTHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION AS ITS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY ON FRI…MOVING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF ANDREA THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THAT SAID…A BLEND OF THE UKMET
WITH 00/12Z ECMWF WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH RESPECT TO ANDREA
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVE. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES…ANDREA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVINCES ON DAY 2. BUT BEFORE
EXITING OFF TO THE EAST…ANDREA CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SWATH OF HEAVY AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES FROM THE JERSEY
SHORE TO DOWNEAST MAINE. WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER…MOISTURE AND
ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS FL. REFER TO NHC GUIDANCE
FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING ANDREA.
…PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY…
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET
DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET TO ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING DOWNSTREAM
OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST…CLOSING OFF A MID
LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE MID MS/MS VALLEYS ON SUN. STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SFC/LOW LEVEL WAVE ALONG WITH
THE UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY AMOUNTS CENTERED OVER THE MID MO/MS
VALLEY SAT EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ALONG A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO OK. TO ADDRESS WHAT BECOMES A
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD…THE WPC
FORECAST FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/00Z ECMWF THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD…DISCOUNTING THE NAM/12Z ECMWF WHICH FELL ON THE
LEAST/MOST AMPLIFIED SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE RESPECTIVELY.
HURLEY/TERRY/PEREIRA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 08/00Z