WTPA34 PHFO 052053

TCPCP4

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER  28

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015

1100 AM HST WED AUG 05 2015

 

…LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST…

 

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…21.4N 151.7W

ABOUT 250 MI…400 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII

ABOUT 400 MI…640 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

 

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY

AND MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI

AND KAHOOLAWE.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

 

NONE

 

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF GUILLERMO.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN

HONOLULU HAWAII.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 151.7 WEST.

GUILLERMO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19

KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO IS

EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND

LATE TONIGHT…130 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAUI THURSDAY…AND 100

MILES NORTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…

WITH GUILLERMO EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY

NIGHT.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES…295 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

SURF…SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL PRODUCE

LARGE…LIFE THREATENING SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.

 

$$

FORECASTER WROE

WTPA44 PHFO 052054

TCDCP4

 

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015

1100 AM HST WED AUG 05 2015

 

 

THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO HAS BECOME EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR. A U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND

PERSISTENT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 62 KT WITHIN THE NORTHEAST

QUADRANT…WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED…AND CONVERSION OF

THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE YIELDS 50 KT. THE SFMR

REPORTED WINDS WERE UP TO 55 KT…BUT GIVEN COLLOCATED RAIN RATES…

THE FLIGHT LEVEL DATA HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50

KT.

 

STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

ACCORDING CIMSS IS NEARLY 45 KT…AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

OVERHEAD…WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AS THE WARM CORE

ALOFT BECOMES FURTHER DISRUPTED AND INCREASINGLY TILTED. THE

INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY…WEAKENING

GUILLERMO INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH

DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY. THE FORECAST CLOSELY

FOLLOWS ICON. SHIPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVELY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AND

FORECASTS DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY.

 

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FOUND THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO TO BE

SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS EXPECTED POSITION THIS MORNING…AND

SUBSEQUENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS LOCATION…GIVING

AN INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST…295 DEGREES…AT 10

KT. THE NORTHWARD JOG IN THE INITIAL POSITION SUGGESTS THAT THE

CIRCULATION…THOUGH TILTED…IS STILL COUPLED AT THE LOWER LEVELS

AND ALOFT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR…THE LOW LEVEL CENTER COULD BECOME DECOUPLED…CAUSING THE

STEERING FLOW AFFECTING GUILLERMO TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED

BY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.

WITH THIS IN MIND…THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE FROM

THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE.

 

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII

HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED WITH THIS ADVISORY. THIS DECISION WAS MADE

GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEAKENING AND THE

DECREASE IN WIND PROBABILITIES OVER THE ISLANDS.

 

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  05/2100Z 21.4N 151.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

12H  06/0600Z 22.0N 153.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

24H  06/1800Z 22.6N 155.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

36H  07/0600Z 23.1N 157.6W   30 KT  35 MPH

48H  07/1800Z 23.8N 159.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

72H  08/1800Z 25.5N 164.1W   25 KT  30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H  09/1800Z 27.4N 168.7W   20 KT  25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  10/1800Z…DISSIPATED

 

$$

FORECASTER WROE