000
WTPZ33 KNHC 042038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016

…BLAS MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD…
…STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.7N 115.7W
ABOUT 740 MI…1190 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 115.7 West. Blas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is still forecast, and Blas could
become a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Blas is becoming a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

WTPZ43 KNHC 042039
TCDEP3

HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016

Blas’ cloud pattern has not changed much in organization since this
morning, except for the emergence of what appears to be a ragged,
banding-type eye.  The cyclone’s central features are still not that
well organized, although there are some recent signs that this may
be changing.  A dry slot of air has also been wrapping around the
western half of the circulation.  Dvorak classifications remain T4.0
and T4.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A 1652 UTC ASCAT overpass
indicates that Blas is a minimal hurricane at best, and the initial
intensity estimate is held at 65 kt for this advisory.

The latest fixes indicate that the initial motion is a little faster
and has a bit more of a northerly component than yesterday.  The
best estimate is that the cyclone is moving 290/12.  Overall, the
forecast reasoning is unchanged.  Blas should be steered on a west-
northwestward course during the next several days to the south of
a strong, deep-layer subtropical ridge extending westward from
northern Mexico.  A more northwesterly track is possible toward the
end of the forecast period as the cyclone nears the western end of
this ridge.  The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the
north in the short term and lies on the northern side of the
guidance envelope.  The forecast does not deviate much from the
previous forecast beyond day 2 and lies near the multi-model
consensus.

It is unclear as to why Blas has not strengthened much, especially
since the large-scale environment appears conducive for
intensification. The current interruption to the cyclone’s
strengthening could be related to a dry air intrusion from an
unknown source and/or some northeasterly shear.  Whatever the cause,
additional strengthening is still indicated, and the new intensity
forecast remains near the upper-end statistical guidance. On days
3-4, Blas will reach the 26-deg sea surface temperature isotherm and
encounter substantially drier and more stable air. This should
result in gradual weakening in an otherwise low-shear environment.
By 96 hours, rapid weakening is expected to commence due to
increasingly unfavorable environmental factors.

The wind radii have been significantly adjusted based on the
aforementioned ASCAT overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 13.7N 115.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  05/0600Z 14.1N 117.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  05/1800Z 14.6N 120.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  06/0600Z 15.1N 122.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  06/1800Z 15.6N 124.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  07/1800Z 16.8N 128.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  08/1800Z 18.2N 131.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 20.0N 135.1W   35 KT  40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

N