Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil Advisory 7

Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 5 PM HST

(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 7)

Hurricane Gil  Advisory 7 is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (70 kts), moving west-northwest at 12 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the storm center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the storm center.

 

TCMEP2

HURRICANE GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

0300 UTC THU AUG 01 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.8W AT 01/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.

64 KT……. 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.

50 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT……. 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.8W AT 01/0300Z

AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.6N 123.2W

MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT… 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

34 KT… 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.9N 125.3W

MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT… 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

34 KT… 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.2N 127.2W

MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT… 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

34 KT… 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.4N 128.8W

MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.

50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

34 KT… 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.5N 132.0W

MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.

50 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT… 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W

MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 138.5W

Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil #7 – Page 2

MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 121.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

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FORECASTER BEVEN

000

PWSEP2

HURRICANE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2013

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9

NORTH…LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65

KTS…75 MPH…120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)

PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)…SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME

HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)…SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES

AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS

THAN 1 PERCENT.

– – – MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES – – –

VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

DISSIPATED X X X 1 2 9 32

TROP DEPRESSION X 1 2 4 10 34 48

TROPICAL STORM 17 33 38 50 62 53 20

HURRICANE 84 66 60 45 26 5 1

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

HUR CAT 1 77 53 43 33 22 4 1

HUR CAT 2 5 10 13 9 3 X X

HUR CAT 3 1 3 4 3 1 X X

HUR CAT 4 X X 1 X X X X

HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 70KT 65KT 60KT 45KT 30KT

II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST

Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil #7 – Page 3

…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…

…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…

…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE

IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING

AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)

(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN

18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN

THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM

TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO

06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

LOCATION KT

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FORECASTER AVILA