Hurricane Gil Advisory 6

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Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil Advisory 6

Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 11 AM HST

(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 6)

Hurricane Gil  Advisory 6 is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (65 kts), moving west-northwest at 12 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the storm center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the storm center.

Hurricane Gil Advisory 6
Hurricane Gil Advisory 6

 

000

WTPZ32 KNHC 312033

TCPEP2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

200 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

…GIL NOW A HURRICANE…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…13.9N 120.6W

ABOUT 935 MI…1505 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST. GIL IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120

KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM

THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60

MILES…95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

000

WTPZ42 KNHC 312033

Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil #6 – Page 2

TCDEP2

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

200 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A RAGGED EYE

EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST…CDO. IN ADDITION…THERE

ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CDO. ON

THIS BASIS…GIL HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS IN THIS

ADVISORY. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE

NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS

FOR GIL TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE

GLOBAL MODELS…PRIMARILY THE GFS…FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE

UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OR NEAR THE CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER

PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN…IN COMBINATION WITH

COOLER WATERS…SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 36 OR 48

HOURS.

GIL HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GIL CONTINUES TO BE

STEERED BY THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST

TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GIL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST

TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME…BOTH THE GFS AND

THE ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT GIL WILL BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED

AND A WEAKENED LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD…STEERED

BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL

MODEL SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS…TURNING GIL MORE TO

THE WEST BEYOND 3 DAYS.

A RECENT ASCAT-B PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND RADII

ASSOCIATED WITH GIL WHICH IN FACT IS A SMALL HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 13.9N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 01/1800Z 14.7N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 02/0600Z 15.0N 126.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

48H 02/1800Z 15.3N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 03/1800Z 15.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

96H 04/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

120H 05/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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