Hurricane Gil Advisory 9

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Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil Advisory 9

Thursday, August 1, 2013 at 5 AM HST (Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 9)

Hurricane Gil is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (70 kts), moving west at 13 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the storm
center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the storm center.

Hurricane Gil Advisory 9
Hurricane Gil Advisory 9

WTPZ32 KNHC 011436
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013
…GIL MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.5N 124.2W
ABOUT 1100 MI…1770 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST. GIL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY…BUT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES…20 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES…95 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 011437
Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil #9 – Page 2
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 OR 18 HOURS
AGO…AND THE RAGGED EYE THAT WAS BRIEFLY OBSERVED YESTERDAY IS NO
LONGER APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAINED UNCHANGED…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70
KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION
APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING…GIVEN THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR…THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME…WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE
COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GIL.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE…WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HWRF MODEL THAT DELAYS THE WEAKENING BY A COUPLE OF DAYS.
GIL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS…EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD…AND THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WILL NOT AFFECT THE
MOTION OF GIL TOO MUCH. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK
MODELS…PRIMARILY THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS THAT BOTH DEPICT
A WESTWARD-MOVING CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THOSE GLOBAL MODELS…AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 14.5N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 14.7N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.9N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.0N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 15.2N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 15.0N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 15.0N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 15.0N 141.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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