Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil Advisory 10

Thursday, August 1, 2013 at 11 AM HST

(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 10)

Hurricane Gil  Advisory 10 is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (70 kts), moving west-southwest at 12 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the storm center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the storm center.

000

WTPZ32 KNHC 012031

TCPEP2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

200 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013

…GIL HEADING WESTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…14.3N 125.1W

ABOUT 1160 MI…1865 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST. GIL IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE

NEXT 12 HOURS…BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM

THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60

MILES…95 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB…29.23 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

WTPZ42 KNHC 012031

TCDEP2

Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil #10 – Page 2

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

200 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013

I WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE THE WINDS TO 75 KNOTS GIVEN THAT THE

SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5 ON THE DVORAK

SCALE AT 1800 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME…THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE

CENTER HAS WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

KEPT AT 70 KNOTS.

GIL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION

IS NOW MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN EARLIER AND IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE

EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS NOW BUILD THE

RIDGE EVEN FATHER WEST AND STRONGER THAN BEFORE…KEEPING GIL ON A

STRAIGHT WESTWARD PATH FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS

EVEN HINT AT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS BASIS…THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST MAINTAINS GIL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.

MICROWAVE DATA SHOW SOME INCREASE IN THE EYE OR CENTER DIAMETER.

THIS PERHAPS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING

THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE. THE

CHANGE FOR A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE FORECAST INDICATE THAT THE

HURRICANE WILL REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS LONGER…AND THE WEAKENING

PROCESS SHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.3N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 02/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 02/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 03/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

48H 03/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 04/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

96H 05/1800Z 14.5N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

120H 06/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

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