WTPA33 PHFO 272036
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

…IGNACIO CROSSES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.9N 140.8W
ABOUT 1055 MI…1700 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1265 MI…2040 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB…29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 140.8 WEST. IGNACIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS…AND IGNACIO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES…150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB…29.00 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA



WTPA43 PHFO 272039
TCDCP3

HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
1100 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO PASSED WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE SHORTLY AFTER 1500
UTC…MAKING IT THE EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC BASIN FOR THE 2015 HURRICANE SEASON. IGNACIO CONTINUES TO
HAVE A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
AND AN OVERALL SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. A 1642 UTC SSMI/S PASS AND
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THAT THE MOST ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 77 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC…AND 90 KT FROM PHFO.
A 1730 UTC CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS CLOSE TO 80 KT. BASED ON A BLEND
OF THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD
AT 80 KT.

IGNACIO IS MOVING AT 280/11 KT AND APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED A BIT LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. DESPITE THIS SLIGHT WOBBLE…THE
GENERAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO STEER IT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST…THOUGH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION STARTING LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE…THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS BECOME TIGHTER…WITH THE ECMWF HAVING SHIFTED
NORTH TO LINE UP CLOSER WITH THE GFS. THE SHIFT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER CYCLONE WITH LESS WEAKENING DUE TO
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS…THEN NUDGED
NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR 96 AND 120 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 72
HOURS…WHICH SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS IGNACIO TO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS…FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARD. THIS IS CLOSE
TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS…THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW IT FROM
72 HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 12.9N 140.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 13.6N 142.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 14.5N 144.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 15.3N 145.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 16.1N 147.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 17.5N 149.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 19.5N 152.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 21.0N 154.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA