Hurricane Jimena Advisory 24

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Jimena Advisory #24Tropical Storm wind probabilities sept 1 2015

WTPZ33 KNHC 011437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015

…JIMENA WEAKENS SOME…
…MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC…
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.9N 140.1W
ABOUT 1000 MI…1610 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…955 MB…28.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 140.1 West. Jimena is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Jimena. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 2 PM PDT (11 AM HST), under AWIPS header
TCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011438
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave
overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite
continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with
evidence of erosion of Jimena’s inner eyewall in the southern
portion. Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the
eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on
a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although
the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm
ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does
not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a
marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the
weakening trend that has commenced. The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on
the SHIPS model and the HWRF.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt. Jimena has
made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving
toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge. A subsequent
turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by
the 48 hour period and through the end of the period. The NHC
forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and
sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.

Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin. Therefore, this is
the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.
Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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