Iselle Number 31A Public Advisory

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Iselle#31A
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Iselle Number 31A Public Advisory

WTPA33 PHFO 072347
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
200 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

…AIR FORCE RECONAISSANCE FINDS ISELLE IS STILL A HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.9N 152.9W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.27 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI…
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM HST…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 152.9 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…27 KM/H…AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…ISELLE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT…AND PASSING SOUTH OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

DATA FROM THE U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS…BUT ISELLE COULD
STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE BIG ISLAND. ISELLE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB…29.27 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON…WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARRIVING BEFORE DARK.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY
TONIGHT…AND FOR OAHU LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI COUNTY LATER FRIDAY.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES TONIGHT. VERY LARGE…DAMAGING SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU…1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
WWWW
WTPA43 PHFO 072050
TCDCP3

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 AM HST THU AUG 07 2014

ISELLE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY…AND THE RECONNASIANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE AT THE CENTER HAD RISEN A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WERE
69 KT…WHICH SUGGESTS MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS NEAR 60 KT. OTHER
REDUCTION FACTOR TECHNIQUES WERE SUGGESTING 60 TO 65 KT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. THUS THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
BEING LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS…AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

ISELLE IS STILL LOCATED IN A REGION OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR BETWEEN
TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES…TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THE HURRICANE
HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THIS WEAKNESS…AND WILL START
TO FEEL INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A WEAKENING TREND DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF ISELLE REACHES THE BIG ISLAND AS A TROPICAL
STORM…SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL STILL BE FELT FROM WIND…RAIN…
AND SURF.

BEYOND 12 HOURS…THE COMBINATION OF MUCH STRONGER NORTHERLY SHEAR
AND INTERACTION WITH THE BIG ISLAND TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
ISELLE FURTHER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWED A LITTLE MORE SPREAD FOR
THIS CYCLE…AND SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH BEYOND 24 HOURS…
LIKELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE INTENSITY OF A WEAKER ISELLE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND WITH A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER
THAN THE CONSENSUS BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE ISELLE WILL NOT SURVIVE THE
INTERACTION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.9N 152.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.4N 154.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 157.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 20.4N 160.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 20.9N 162.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.8N 166.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.7N 172.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 25.9N 178.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

 

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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