Tropical Cyclone Julio Number 21 Public Advisory

WTPA34 PHFO 090234
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

…HURRICANE JULIO CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD FAR EAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.9N 144.7W
ABOUT 680 MI…1095 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 870 MI…1405 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JULIO.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 144.7 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST
TRACK…JULIO IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY. REMEMBER THAT FORECAST MOVEMENT…
DIRECTION..AND SPEED ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH…155 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE



000
WTPA44 PHFO 090234
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HURRICANE JULIO CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. A SMALL 15 NM WIDE EYE IS STILL APPARENT IN
BOTH VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF FILLING IN. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM SAB AND 5.0 FROM BOTH CPHC AND JTWC.
UW-CIMSS ADT CAME IN AT 5.4. WITH THE SLIGHT WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS
AROUND THE CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WE HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY JUST
SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. THIS IS BECAUSE OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME. THUS THE MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS IS
FOR EITHER A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK OR A CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING JULIO ON BASICALLY A WEST NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH DAY 5. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT…WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIO NORTH OF AND PARALLEL TO THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…INTERESTS THERE SHOULD WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
JULIO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UW-CIMSS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE
SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS NOW ABOUT 14 KT WHILE
SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER AT AROUND 8 KT. MODELS INDICATE A BIT
MORE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING FURTHER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS ALONG WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND IS A
BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 18.9N 144.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 19.6N 146.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.6N 149.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 21.6N 152.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 22.9N 154.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 24.9N 159.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 26.6N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.7N 169.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE