Tropical Cyclone Iselle Number 36 Public Advisory

WTPA33 PHFO 090256
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

…ISELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF KAUAI…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.0N 159.5W
ABOUT 140 MI…220 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 135 MI…220 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM HST…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 159.5 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H…AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB…29.80 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS TONIGHT…
MAINLY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.

RAINFALL…LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING…ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT ARE SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/TANABE
WWWW
WTPA43 PHFO 090234
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
ISELLE. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONICALLY
ROTATING SHOWERY CLOUDS…AND SEVERAL SMALLER CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
EDDIES THAT ARE GENERATED BY THE STRONG FLOW CHANNELLED BETWEEN THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE KAUAI RADAR INDICATES 40 KT VELOCITIES NEAR
THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER AT ABOUT 8000 FEET…AND THE LAST
RECONNAISSANCE PASS INDICATED SOME 40 KNOT WINDS REMAIN AT 850 MB IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED
TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ISELLE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
IF NOT SOONER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OF THE CYCLONE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN.

BIG MAHALOS TO THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
AND THE NOAA G-IV PERSONNEL FOR THEIR HARD WORK AND LONG HOURS
PROVIDING US EXTREMELY VALUABLE DATA IN OUR ANALYSES FOR ISELLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 20.0N 159.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 20.4N 161.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.7N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.9N 165.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 21.2N 168.3W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W 20 KT 25 MPH…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD