WTPA23 PHFO 222039
TCMCP3
TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
2100 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DARBY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL ISLANDS
LATER TODAY .
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 151.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…….110NE 80SE 40SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 310NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 151.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 150.5W
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.8N 152.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…110NE 80SE 40SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.4N 154.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 155.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.4N 156.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.8N 159.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 26.0N 161.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 30.0N 162.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 151.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
HFON-34012
FOPA13 PHFO 221446
PWSCP3
TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052016
1500 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 149.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS…60 MPH…95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)…SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)…SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT
20N 150W 34 30 1(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
20N 151W 34 28 5(33) 1(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35)
BUOY 51004 34 3 11(14) 2(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 154W 34 1 18(19) 35(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
20N 154W 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
20N 154W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
HILO 34 X 6( 6) 34(40) 10(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51)
HILO 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
HILO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BRADSHAW AAF 34 X 3( 3) 23(26) 16(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44)
BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BRADSHAW AAF 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
18N 156W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
SOUTH POINT 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
21N 156W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 29(40) 8(48) 1(49) X(49)
21N 156W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14)
21N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 18(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
KAHULUI 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 12(45) X(45) X(45)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12)
KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
21N 158W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 15(24) 1(25) X(25)
21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
21N 158W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15)
BARKING SANDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HANA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 28(41) 7(48) 1(49) X(49)
HANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14)
HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LANAI CITY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 13(38) 1(39) X(39)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 16(38) 1(39) X(39)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10)
KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 18(28) 1(29) X(29)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 18(28) 1(29) X(29)
JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JOINT BASE PHH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
26N 159W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17)
26N 159W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) X(20)
LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 2(22)
25N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
30N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13)
21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9)
BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
30N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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