Tropical Storm Darby Forecast Advisory 45

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Tropical Storm Darby Advisory 45
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory 45

WTPA23 PHFO 222039
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM DARBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016
2100 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DARBY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL ISLANDS
LATER TODAY .

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 151.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT……. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT…….110NE  80SE  40SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 310NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 151.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 150.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.8N 152.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT…GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT…110NE  80SE  40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.4N 154.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT…GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT… 80NE  40SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 155.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT…GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT… 80NE  30SE  30SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.4N 156.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT…GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.8N 159.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT…GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT… 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 26.0N 161.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT…GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 30.0N 162.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT…GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 151.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
HFON-34012
FOPA13 PHFO 221446
PWSCP3

TROPICAL STORM DARBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016
1500 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DARBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 149.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS…60 MPH…95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)…SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)…SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION       KT

20N 150W       34 30   1(31)   X(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)

20N 151W       34 28   5(33)   1(34)   X(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)

BUOY 51004     34  3  11(14)   2(16)   1(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)

20N 154W       34  1  18(19)  35(54)   5(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
20N 154W       50  X   1( 1)  14(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
20N 154W       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

HILO           34  X   6( 6)  34(40)  10(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
HILO           50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
HILO           64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BRADSHAW AAF   34  X   3( 3)  23(26)  16(42)   2(44)   X(44)   X(44)
BRADSHAW AAF   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
BRADSHAW AAF   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

18N 156W       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)

SOUTH POINT    34  X   3( 3)  12(15)   8(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SOUTH POINT    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

21N 156W       34  X   2( 2)   9(11)  29(40)   8(48)   1(49)   X(49)
21N 156W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
21N 156W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

KAILUA-KONA    34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  18(33)   3(36)   X(36)   X(36)
KAILUA-KONA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
KAILUA-KONA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

KAHULUI        34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  26(33)  12(45)   X(45)   X(45)
KAHULUI        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
KAHULUI        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  15(24)   1(25)   X(25)
21N 158W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
21N 158W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)   X(15)
BARKING SANDS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

HANA           34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  28(41)   7(48)   1(49)   X(49)
HANA           50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
HANA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LANAI CITY     34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  20(25)  13(38)   1(39)   X(39)
LANAI CITY     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
LANAI CITY     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  19(22)  16(38)   1(39)   X(39)
KAUNAKAKAI     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)
KAUNAKAKAI     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

BUOY 51002     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  18(28)   1(29)   X(29)
HONOLULU       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
HONOLULU       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  18(28)   1(29)   X(29)
JOINT BASE PHH 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
JOINT BASE PHH 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)

26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   1(17)
26N 159W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   4(20)   X(20)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

20N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  13(20)   2(22)
25N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

30N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   3(13)   X(13)

21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)

BUOY 51003     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)

BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)

30N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

Follow Paul Garrett Hugel:

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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