Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory 26

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Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory 26
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory 26

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 212035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

…ESTELLE SLOWLY WEAKENING…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…20.7N 129.7W
ABOUT 1275 MI…2055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 129.7 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Estelle
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 212036
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

Estelle is gradually weakening, with the convection warming west
of the center during the past few hours. The initial intensity is
set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB. Further weakening is expected as Estelle will be moving over
SSTs of less than 23C with an increase in shear, which should result
in Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post-
tropical in about 24 hours, or even a little sooner. The remnant
low of Estelle is expected to dissipate after 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/14. Estelle is being steered by
a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central
United States. Estelle should continue moving around the periphery
of the ridge and turn a bit more poleward by 36 hours, and this
motion should continue through dissipation. The new NHC track
forecast is again adjusted to the left of the previous one
following the latest trend in the guidance. The official forecast
is close to the latest ECMWF and lies a bit north of the new
multi-model consensus aid TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 20.7N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 21.4N 131.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 22.5N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z 23.9N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 25.4N 139.4W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 27.7N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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