Tropical Storm Gil 4

Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Gil 4

Tuesday, July 30, 2013 at 11 PM HST

(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 4)

Gil is currently a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (45 kts), moving west at 15 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the storm center.

WTPZ32 KNHC 310838

TCPEP2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

200 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

…GIL STEADILY STRENGTHENING…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…13.3N 118.9W

ABOUT 890 MI…1430 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 118.9 WEST. GIL IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/H…AND THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS…AND GIL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 AM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER BERG

WWWW

WTPZ42 KNHC 310838

TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Gil #4 – Page 2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013

200 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

GIL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED…WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY

SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST 3/4 OF THE

WAY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.0

FROM TAFB AND THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT…WARRANTING AN INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 45 KT. NEGLIGIBLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR…WARM SSTS…AND

A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…GIL COULD BEGIN

TO INGEST A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIR…AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY

BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND

OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS…SHOWING GIL REACHING HURRICANE

STATUS IN 36 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13 KT. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING

EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD

INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE GIL WESTWARD TO

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER…THE

RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS…AND GIL

SHOULD RESPOND BY SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM DAY 3 THROUGH 5.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION

ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN

EDGE…AND THE ENTIRE SUITE OF MODELS HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE

SOUTH ON THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED

SOUTHWARD…ENDING UP CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 13.3N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 31/1800Z 13.8N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 01/0600Z 14.4N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 01/1800Z 14.8N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 02/0600Z 15.2N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 03/0600Z 15.7N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

96H 04/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 05/0600Z 16.0N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BERG