WTPA34 PHFO 082030
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2015

…JIMENA FORECAST TO WEAKEN…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…26.5N 153.4W
ABOUT 460 MI…735 KM NE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI…775 KM NNE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 153.4 WEST. JIMENA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES…350
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB…29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



WTPA44 PHFO 082031
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132015
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2015

JIMENA IS A SHEARED CYCLONE AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION OF
LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER…THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO
DECREASE…AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE
GLOBAL MODELS SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER AS
QUICKLY AS 48 HOURS, AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT STRONG SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. ON THIS BASIS…THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR JIMENA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48
HOURS OR SO. THE LOW COULD REMAIN LINGERING FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 270
DEGREES AT 6 KT. SINCE JIMENA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE…IT
WILL LIKELY BE STEERED SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME…THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A NEW TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 26.5N 153.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 26.3N 154.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.9N 156.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.6N 158.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.4N 159.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 25.5N 161.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 26.4N 163.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z 31.2N 166.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

N