TCMCP4
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
1500 UTC WED AUG 05 2015
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUILLERMO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 151.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 90NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT…….160NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 151.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 150.7W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 152.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 154.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 30SE 10SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 156.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N 159.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 163.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N 168.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 151.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
FOPA14 PHFO 051433
PWSCP4
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
1500 UTC WED AUG 05 2015
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 151.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS…60 MPH…95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)…SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)…SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT
20N 150W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 151W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 154W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HILO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BRADSHAW AAF 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
21N 156W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
KAHULUI 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
21N 158W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LANAI CITY 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HONOLULU 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
26N 159W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
25N 160W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
21N 160W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10)
BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13)
22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
25N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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