WTPA24 PHFO 051436

TCMCP4

 

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015

1500 UTC WED AUG 05 2015

 

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

 

NONE.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* HAWAII COUNTY

* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND

KAHOOLAWE

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF GUILLERMO.

 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 151.2W AT 05/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT……. 90NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.

34 KT…….160NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 210SW 330NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 151.2W AT 05/1500Z

AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 150.7W

 

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 152.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT…GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT…120NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 154.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT…GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT… 90NE  30SE  10SW  45NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 156.8W

MAX WIND  30 KT…GUSTS  40 KT.

 

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N 159.2W

MAX WIND  30 KT…GUSTS  40 KT.

 

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 163.3W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT…GUSTS  35 KT.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

 

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N 168.0W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT…GUSTS  30 KT.

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 151.2W

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

 

$$

 

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

 

 

 

FOPA14 PHFO 051433

PWSCP4

 

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092015

1500 UTC WED AUG 05 2015

 

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 151.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS NEAR 50 KTS…60 MPH…95 KM/H.

 

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)

PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)…SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME

HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)…SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

 

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST

…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…

…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…

…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

 

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE

OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING

AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)

(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN

12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

 

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN

THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.

PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE

PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

 

FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO

00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

 

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

LOCATION       KT

 

20N 150W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

 

20N 151W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

 

20N 154W       34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

 

HILO           34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

 

BRADSHAW AAF   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

 

21N 156W       34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

 

KAHULUI        34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

 

21N 158W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

 

BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

 

HANA           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

 

LANAI CITY     34  1   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

 

KAUNAKAKAI     34  1   1( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

 

HONOLULU       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

 

JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

 

26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

 

LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)

 

25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)

 

NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

 

21N 160W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

 

NIHOA          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)

 

BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)

 

22N 164W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

 

NECKER         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

 

25N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)

 

FR FRIG SHOALS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

 

$$

 

FORECASTER BIRCHARD