Hurricane Gil Advisory 11

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Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil Advisory 11

Thursday, August 1, 2013 at 5 PM HST

(Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 11)

Hurricane Gil is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (75 kts), moving west at 14 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the storm center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the storm center.

Hurricane Gil ADVISORY 11
Hurricane Gil ADVISORY 11

WTPZ32 KNHC 020234
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GIL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013
…GIL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.4N 126.4W
ABOUT 1230 MI…1975 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM PDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GIL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST. GIL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES…95 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WWWW
WTPZ42 KNHC 020235
TCDEP2
Storm Summary for Hurricane Gil #11 – Page 2
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
OF GIL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -80C. HOWEVER…THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS A
LITTLE RAGGED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB
AND 77 KT FROM SAB. DUE TO THE RAGGED APPEARANCE…THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 75 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12…A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER. GIL IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE…WHICH IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AS
SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO NOW SHOW A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION BETWEEN
DAYS 4-5…IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS…THE UKMET…THE
ECMWF…AND THE GFS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY…WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CURRENTLY
FORECASTING INTENSITIES 10-20 KT STRONGER AT ALL FORECAST TIMES
THAN THOSE FROM 6 HR AGO. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
NOT TOTALLY FOLLOW THIS CHANGE…BUT IT WILL SHOW MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT…GIL IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH COOLER SSTS NEAR 140W…WHICH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE
WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST…THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS…AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST INCREASES THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST INTENSITIES BY 5-10 KT…IT LIES WELL BELOW THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 14.4N 126.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.5N 127.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 14.6N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.7N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 14.7N 132.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.5N 135.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 14.0N 142.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WWWW

 

 

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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