000
WTPZ35 KNHC 232059
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

…POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE PATRICIA SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS…
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.9N 105.2W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…190 MPH…305 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…900 MB…26.58 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of San Blas to El Roblito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 105.2 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed
tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Patricia should make landfall during the next several hours on the
coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. After
landfall, the center of Patricia is expected to move quickly
north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Patricia has weakened a little during the past few hours and that
maximum sustained winds are near 190 mph (305 km/h) with higher
gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Patricia is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall. After landfall,
Patricia is forecast to rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter Data is
900 mb (26.58 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions should spread across the hurricane
warning area during the next few hours, with the worst conditions
occurring near where the eye of Patricia makes landfall. Tropical
storm conditions are spreading across portions of the warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area this afternoon and this evening.

RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 232103
TCDEP5

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed
little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured
192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,
with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye
dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become
cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an
outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an
increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the
hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,
and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a
Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few
hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of
Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly
weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36
hours, if not sooner.

Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion
of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a
mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over
northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion
toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone’s
life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the
previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies
near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to
the left of the center after that time.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia’s remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and
hurricane conditions are about to occur. Residents in low-lying
areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate
immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the
Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the
center – about 15 miles across.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 18.9N 105.2W 165 KT 190 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W 110 KT 125 MPH…INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
36H 25/0600Z 26.9N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven