WTPZ34 KNHC 160834
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

…DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…10.1N 123.5W
ABOUT 1260 MI…2030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 123.5
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to
continue through Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the depression could
become a tropical storm later today or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



WTPZ44 KNHC 160835
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

The cloud pattern remains poorly organized and consists of a small
area of deep convection with little or no banding features.
Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is still on the
eastern edge of the convective region. Given that the Dvorak
CI-numbers have not changed significantly, the initial intensity is
kept at 25 kt.

It is surprising that the depression has not responded to the
quite favorable environment of low shear and warm waters yet. In
fact, most the guidance indicated that the depression should have
been already a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Since
the opportunity for strengthening is still there, the NHC forecast
insists on intensification and calls for the depression to become a
hurricane in about 3 days.

The depression is trapped south of strong subtropical ridge moving
toward the west at 12 kt. Global models indicate that the ridge will
gradually move eastward. This steering pattern should allow the
cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest in about 3 days, and
eventually to move northward by the end of the forecast period. The
NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
the GFS/ECMWF solutions. The spread in the guidance has decreased a
little bit, and in general, most of the models now turn the cyclone
northward around 140 W. This increases slightly the confidence in
the long range track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 10.1N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 10.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 10.0N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 10.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 10.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 11.5N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila