Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory 6

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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory #6
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory #6

WTPZ34 KNHC 160834
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

…DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING…
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…10.1N 123.5W
ABOUT 1260 MI…2030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 123.5
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to
continue through Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the depression could
become a tropical storm later today or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



WTPZ44 KNHC 160835
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

The cloud pattern remains poorly organized and consists of a small
area of deep convection with little or no banding features.
Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is still on the
eastern edge of the convective region. Given that the Dvorak
CI-numbers have not changed significantly, the initial intensity is
kept at 25 kt.

It is surprising that the depression has not responded to the
quite favorable environment of low shear and warm waters yet. In
fact, most the guidance indicated that the depression should have
been already a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Since
the opportunity for strengthening is still there, the NHC forecast
insists on intensification and calls for the depression to become a
hurricane in about 3 days.

The depression is trapped south of strong subtropical ridge moving
toward the west at 12 kt. Global models indicate that the ridge will
gradually move eastward. This steering pattern should allow the
cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest in about 3 days, and
eventually to move northward by the end of the forecast period. The
NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and
the GFS/ECMWF solutions. The spread in the guidance has decreased a
little bit, and in general, most of the models now turn the cyclone
northward around 140 W. This increases slightly the confidence in
the long range track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 10.1N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 10.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 10.0N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 10.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 10.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 11.5N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila



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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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