000
WTPZ34 KNHC 162032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

…DEPRESSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…9.5N 126.2W
ABOUT 1420 MI…2285 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 126.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
through Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane on
Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

WTPZ44 KNHC 162033
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

The depression’s cloud pattern has increased in organization since
yesterday. A small CDO-like feature appears to be forming over the
estimated low-level center. There has also been an increase in
banding features and their associated curvature, especially over the
western half of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates have
increased some, and the initial intensity estimate is raised to 30
kt.

Recent fixes suggest that the depression may be slowing down, and
the initial motion estimate could be slightly slower than the
longer-term motion of 265/13. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a
general westward course underneath a mid-level subtropical ridge
during the next 24 to 36 hours but decelerate as the tail of a
mid- to upper- level trough, extending from the U.S. west coast,
causes the ridge to weaken. As the ridge weakens further by 36
hours, the cyclone should begin to gain more latitude. An even
greater in increase in latitude is expected after 96 hours when the
cyclone encounters a more significant weakness west of 140W. The
official track forecast has changed very little compared to the
previous one and is near the multi-model consensus throughout the
forecast period.

With the increased organization of the cyclone’s central features,
intensification seems likely in an environment characterized by
very warm SSTs, low shear, and a moist mid-troposphere. In fact,
the SHIPS RI index shows a 65 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in
intensity during the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast
is raised relative to the previous one, especially during the early
part of the forecast. Given the very conducive large-scale
environment for intensification, it would not be surprising to see
more occur than what is currently forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 9.4N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 9.4N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 9.5N 131.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 10.0N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 11.3N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 13.4N 138.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 15.5N 140.6W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain