Tropical Storm Flossie 16

Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Flossie
Sunday, July 28, 2013 at 11 AM HST
(Output from Hurrevac, based on Central Pacific Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 16)
Tropical Storm Flossie 16 is currently a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum
sustained winds of 60 mph (50 kts), moving west at 20 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is
996 mb. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the storm center.
Certain coastal locations are under Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch as illustrated in
the map below. The geographic extents of these watches and warnings are detailed in the advisory text
at the end of this report.

WTPA31 PHFO 282040
TCPCP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013
…FLOSSIE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…19.9N 148.5W
ABOUT 430 MI…690 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 615 MI…990 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*OAHU
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
*KAUAI AND NIIHAU
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU NWS FORECAST
OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 148.5 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS…WITH A SLIGHT
SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Flossie #16 – Page 3
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES…260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY MONDAY MORNING…AND ARE POSSIBLE ON OAHU
MONDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL…HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING OVER HAWAII COUNTY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY…
WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADING TO OAHU BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOSSIE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE…MAINLY WINDWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE…MAINLY WINDWARD. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFETHREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES…ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
SURF…DANGEROUSLY LARGE SURF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT WITH THE LARGEST SURF
EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BE AWARE THAT LARGE SURF CAN CAUSE
COASTAL ROAD CLOSURES…EVEN BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
WTPA41 PHFO 282057
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A CONSISTENT 3.0 FOR CURRENT
FLOSSIE INTENSITY FROM PHFO…JTWC AND SAB. WHILE OVERNIGHT PULSING
CONVECTIVE BLOOMS SUGGESTED A STRONGER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME…THE
INITIAL STRENGTH FOR THIS BULLETIN CYCLE WILL BE 50 KT IN DEFERENCE
TO THE DVORAK CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 17 KT.
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Flossie #16 – Page 4
THE ENVIRONMENT THAT FLOSSIE IS MOVING INTO WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE
SYSTEM WEAKENING. SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF
FLOSSIE. HOWEVER…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM EMBEDDED
IN AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. AS FLOSSIE MOVES WEST…THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPOSE
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND…APART FROM THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY…THE FORECAST TREND IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS FROM THE LAST CYCLE. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS…AS FLOSSIE DISTANCES ITSELF
FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM…WITH NEARLY
ALL THE MODELS SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MONDAY
MORNING…THEN PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY
BAMMS…INTERESTINGLY AS THE RIGHT OUTLIER…TAKES FLOSSIE JUST
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST LIES ALMOST EXACTLY
ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 19.9N 148.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.0N 151.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 20.2N 154.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 20.3N 157.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 20.5N 161.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 20.9N 167.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 21.2N 174.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER POWELL