Tropical Storm Flossie 16A Storm Summary Sunday, July 28, 2013 at 2 PM HST

(Output from Hurrevac, based on Central Pacific Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory # 16A)

Flossie is currently a tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum
sustained winds of 60 mph (52 kts), moving west at 20 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is
996 mb. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the storm center.
Certain coastal locations are under Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch as illustrated in
the map below. The geographic extents of these watches and warnings are detailed in the advisory text
at the end of this report.

Wind Analysis for Maui, HI
(Based upon Tropical Storm Flossie Advisory #16A)
Wind Probabilities
LANAI CITY, the closest reporting location, has within the 5-day forecast period of this advisory, a 4%
chance of at least strong tropical storm-force (50kt/58mph) winds, and a 24% chance of at least tropical
storm-force (34kt/39mph) winds.
Peak Wind*
Winds in Maui, HI are projected to peak at 39kt/45mph around 3:00 PM on Monday, July 29, 2013
Wind Arrival and Duration*
Tropical storm-force winds (34kt/39mph) are forecast to begin in Maui, HI on Monday, July 29, 2013 at
10:00 AM. Winds of this magnitude or higher are forecast to continue for 11 hours.
50kt/58mph winds are not forecast for Maui, HI.
64kt/74mph winds are not forecast for Maui, HI.
* These wind estimations are limited to the first 72 hours (3 days) following advisory issuance, and are
subject to considerable forecast uncertainty and generalization, especially if the storm is distant.
Maximum sustained winds (the highest surface wind maintained over a 1 minute period) are reported
here. Wind gusts and winds at higher elevations will be greater.
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Flossie #16A – Page 2
WTPA31 PHFO 282345
TCPCP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
200 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2013
…FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.8N 149.3W
ABOUT 375 MI…605 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 560 MI…905 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*OAHU
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
*KAUAI AND NIIHAU
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU NWS FORECAST
OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM HST…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 149.3 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS…WITH A SLIGHT
SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Flossie #16A – Page 3
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES…260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG
ISLAND LATE TONIGHT…MAUI COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AND OAHU MONDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU
MONDAY NIGHT…LASTING INTO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL…HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING OVER HAWAII COUNTY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY…
WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADING TO OAHU BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOSSIE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE…MAINLY WINDWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE…MAINLY WINDWARD. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFETHREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES…ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
SURF…DANGEROUSLY LARGE SURF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT WITH THE LARGEST SURF
EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BE AWARE THAT LARGE SURF CAN CAUSE
COASTAL ROAD CLOSURES…EVEN BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
WWWW
WTPA41 PHFO 282057
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2013
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A CONSISTENT 3.0 FOR CURRENT
FLOSSIE INTENSITY FROM PHFO…JTWC AND SAB. WHILE OVERNIGHT PULSING
CONVECTIVE BLOOMS SUGGESTED A STRONGER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME…THE
INITIAL STRENGTH FOR THIS BULLETIN CYCLE WILL BE 50 KT IN DEFERENCE
TO THE DVORAK CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 17 KT.
THE ENVIRONMENT THAT FLOSSIE IS MOVING INTO WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE
SYSTEM WEAKENING. SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF
Storm Summary for Tropical Storm Flossie #16A – Page 4
FLOSSIE. HOWEVER…WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM EMBEDDED
IN AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. AS FLOSSIE MOVES WEST…THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPOSE
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND…APART FROM THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY…THE FORECAST TREND IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS FROM THE LAST CYCLE. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS…AS FLOSSIE DISTANCES ITSELF
FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE FAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM…WITH NEARLY
ALL THE MODELS SHOWING FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MONDAY
MORNING…THEN PASSING SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY
BAMMS…INTERESTINGLY AS THE RIGHT OUTLIER…TAKES FLOSSIE JUST
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST LIES ALMOST EXACTLY
ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 19.9N 148.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.0N 151.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 20.2N 154.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 20.3N 157.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 20.5N 161.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 20.9N 167.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 21.2N 174.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z…DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER POWELL