Iselle Number 33 Public Advisory

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Iselle#33

Tropical Cyclone Iselle Number 33 Public Advisory

WTPA33 PHFO 080847
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

…ISELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…CONTINUES CHURNING TOWARD
THE BIG ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…19.0N 155.1W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MAUI COUNTY…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…MOLOKAI…LANAI…
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM HST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 155.1 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY…WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB…29.39 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BIG
ISLAND…AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT…AND FOR OAHU ON
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAUAI COUNTY
LATER FRIDAY.

RAINFALL…RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE IS PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING SURF…MAINLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS DAMAGING SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU…1 TO 2 FT

SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES…100 AM HST AND 300 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

WWWW
WTPA43 PHFO 080909
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014

LATEST DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
ISELLE IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE AND IS ON A WEAKENING TREND. AN
EYEWALL WAS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON THE AIRCRAFT NOSE RADAR…WITH
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 60 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR SURFACE
WINDS NEAR 57 KT. ADDITIONALLY…WSR-88D DATA FROM NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE RADARS ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE DETECTING VELOCITIES NEAR 60
KT. BASED ON THESE DATA…THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF ISELLE IS DEEMED
TO BE 60 KT.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09 KT…BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
AND CENTER TRACKING USING WSR-88D DATA. ISELLE/S FORWARD MOTION HAS
SLOWED AS A WEAKNESS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM…NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 20
KT BASED ON UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE…AND THE SYSTEM HAS
INTERACTED WITH THE TERRAIN OF THE BIG ISLAND. A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS WEAKNESS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS…AND DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO A SHALLOW LOW THAT IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD AS A SHALLOW LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ISELLE IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE
INTERACTION WITH THE BIG ISLAND TERRAIN…AND THE STRONG SHEAR ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK…SOME OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING LOW ALOFT. IF IT DOES…SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO RELAX LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A NEW RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOWER END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE…AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SHIPS AND LGEM
INDICATE THAT ISELLE WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE HOSTILE SHEAR
BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…WITH LGEM
INDICATING CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY AS ISELLE APPROACHES THE
DATE LINE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 19.0N 155.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 19.2N 157.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.8N 159.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.2N 162.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 20.8N 164.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 22.2N 169.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 24.0N 175.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 25.7N 177.6E 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
WWWW

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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