Tropical Estelle Advisory 11

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Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory 11
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory 11

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 180233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
900 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

…ESTELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY…

SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.0N 113.2W
ABOUT 460 MI…740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.27 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 113.2 West.  Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Estelle is expected to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180234
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
900 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

Estelle looks a little less organized than this afternoon, since the
eye feature seen on previous microwave imagery has disappeared and
the tropical cyclone is displaying a more asymmetric pattern.  The
initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory, a blend of
the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB.  It seems like some
northwesterly shear is preventing much intensification at
this time.  The shear, however, should abate during the next 24
hours, which would allow for gradual strengthening until the storm
reaches cooler water in a couple of days.  Thereafter, a more steady
weakening is likely, and Estelle should become post-tropical in
about 5 days while it moves over 23 deg C waters.  The models have
backed off somewhat on the peak intensity, and the official forecast
follows suit, although the new prediction is higher than the
consensus for the first few days.

Best estimate of initial motion is to the west-northwest at about 8
kt.  Estelle should continue to move on that general course for the
next couple of days, with perhaps a bend toward the west in 3 days
due to the subtropical ridge to the north temporarily strengthening.
Overall, the global models are showing less ridging between 130-140W
at long range, which would cause Estelle to turn west-northwestward
or even northwestward by the end of the forecast period.
Accordingly, most of the models have again shifted northward this
cycle, and the official forecast is moved in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 17.0N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  18/1200Z 17.4N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  19/0000Z 18.0N 116.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  19/1200Z 18.6N 117.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  20/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  21/0000Z 19.6N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  22/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

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In 1995 At Maui High Performance Computing Center The Maui Scientific Analysis & Visualization of the Environment Program was first incubated. I was the principal investigator of this independant research project which was a joint development between MHPCC, Silicon Graphics Computers (SGI) & NKO.ORG. Using SGI Cosmo Worlds software, we pioneered the development of Internet based 3D virtual reality GIS based interactive worlds. In 1996 with a network of seven high performance SGI workstations we pioneered development of live streaming MPEG-1, MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Real Video and QuickTime Streaming Server utilizing Kassenna MediaBase software. In Maui 2002 we pioneered and tested the first wireless live streaming video using laptop computers and Maui Sky Fiber's portable 3G wireless device. In Maui we pioneered live streaming video using usb modems from AT&T , Verizon as well as live streaming from iPhone 3 over 3G wireless networks. Today The Maui S.A.V.E. Program has diversified into storm tracking including visualization and analysis of large, memory-intensive gridded data sets such as the National Hurricane Center's wind speed probabilities. I volunteer my services to numerous Disaster Services Organizations. In June 2013 I returned from Hurricane Sandy deployment as a computer operations service associate with the Disaster Services Technology Group assisting as The American Red Cross migrated from a Disaster Response Operation to Long Term Recovery Operations. Pioneering the production/editing and Internet distribution of HD video to sites like Youtube.com and Vimeo.com we are shining the light towards environmental and peace efforts of humans across the globe. Since 1992 I have held the vision of establishing Maui, Hawaii as the environmental sciences center of the world. After His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet came to Maui This vision has expanded to establishing Maui as the environmental & peace center of the world.

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